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Commerce international et transport tendance et prospective 2020 pdf

N ?? Décembre Commerce international et transports tendances du passé et prospective Christophe Gouel Nina Kousnetzo ? Hassan Salman CCommerce international et transports tendances du passé et prospective Christophe Gouel Nina Kousnetzo ? Hassan Salman N ?? Décembre CCommerce international et transports tendances du passé et prospective TABLE DES MATIÈRES NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY ABSTRACT RÉSUMÉ NON TECHNIQUE RÉSUMÉ COURT INTRODUCTION IMPACT DU COÛT DE TRANSPORT SUR LE COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL DIFFICULTÉS DE MESURE Les coûts de transport barrière aux échanges Déterminants des coûts de transport Mesure des coûts de transport international Coûts de transport et commerce Mode de croissance du commerce extérieur LE DÉVELOPPEMENT DES TRANSPORTS DEPUIS QUARANTE ANS Progrès technique des transports et développement du tra ?c Un réseau de plus en plus intégré Transport maritime Transport aérien Baisse des coûts de transport Coût du fret ad valorem moyen Évolution réelle du coût du fret ad valorem Coûts et tarifs du fret PERSPECTIVES EFFETS SUR LE COMMERCE ET LA CROISSANCE D ? UNE TAXATION ENVIRONNEMENTALE DES TRANSPORTS INTERNATIONAUX Taxation des importations sur le contenu en carbone du fret Taxation carbone des émissions liées aux intrants des secteurs transport CONCLUSION REFERENCES LISTE DES DOCUMENTS DE TRAVAIL DU CEPII CCEPII Document de travail n - INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION PAST TRENDS AND PROSPECTS UP TO NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY Have transportation costs played a key part in the growth of world trade for the past years and therefore in the new wave of globalization Is there a risk that an increase in the transportation costs during the next years ?? due to carbon taxes and the rise in oil prices ?? will reduce world trade expansion and economic growth This paper reviews past trends in international freight transportation and their impact on the growth of world trade then it provides estimates of the impact of carbon taxes on transportation The ?rst section explains why transportation costs are di ?cult to measure and how their impact on international trade is estimated The second section describes the growth of international freight transportation over the last years In the third section we use the MIRAGE general equilibrium model to predict the impact on world trade and world growth of carbon taxes on transportation Section shows how the di ?culties which arise when identifying and measuring transportation costs generate uncertainty in the predictions of the impact of these costs on trade Firstly the e ?ects of changes in transportation costs and in other barriers to trade must be successfully disentangled from one another Secondly variations in the transportation price must be balanced with the quality of the service speed and security Thirdly ?xed costs and economies of scale make it di ?cult to appreciate the impact of distance on transportation costs Lastly available data for the identi ?cation of these various e ?ects are often incomplete and not detailed enough The data source is either carrier companies or the customs administrations The customs data provide ad valorem freight rates which are the most commonly used indicators for transportation