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The Canadian Journal of Higher Education, Vol. XXIII-2, 1993 La revue canadienn

The Canadian Journal of Higher Education, Vol. XXIII-2, 1993 La revue canadienne d'enseignement supérieur. Vol. XXIII-2, 1993 Logistic Regression Analysis of Graduate Student Retention SANDRA W. PYKE* & PETER M. SHERIDANt Abstract Logistic regression analysis was utilized to predict the retention of 477 master's and 124 doctoral candidates at a large Canadian university. Selected demo- graphic (e.g., sex, marital status, age, citizenship), academic (e.g., GPA, disci- pline, type of study, time to degree completion) and financial support variables (e.g., funding received from internal and external scholarships and from research, graduate and teaching assistantships) were used as independent vari- ables. The dichotomous dependent variable was whether the student successful- ly completed the degree. Results for master's students indicate that higher graduate GPAs, increased length of time in the program, increased funding from all sources, full- or part-time registration status in the coursework only program, and full-time registration status in the coursework plus major research paper program significantly improve the student's chances of graduating with the degree. For doctoral candidates, only increased length of time in the program and increased funding from all sources significantly increase the chances of graduating with the doctorate. Résumé Dans une grande université canadienne, on a eu recours à l'analyse logistique de régression pour calculer le taux de rétention de 477 candidats de maîtrise et 124 de doctorat. Un certain nombre de variables - démographiques (par ex., le sexe, * Dean, Faculty of Graduate Studies; Professor, Department of Psychology, York University. t Graduate Program in Psychology, York University. Logistic Regression Analysis of Graduate Student Retention 45 le statut matrimonial, l'âge, la citoyenneté), académiques (par ex., la moyenne générale, la discipline, le type d'études, le temps mis pour obtenir le diplôme) et d'aide financière (par ex., les bourses d'études internes et externes, celles d'assistant de recherche et d'enseignement) ont été utilisées comme variables indépendantes. Comme variable dépendante dichotomique, on a pris la réussite au diplôme. Pour les étudiants de maîtrise, les résultats obtenus indiquent qu'une moyenne générale élevée, un temps plus long passé dans le programme, une aide financière plus importante, ainsi qu'un statut d'étudiant(e) à plein temps ou à temps partiel dans un programme ne comportant que la scolarité, et un statut d'étudiant(e) à plein temps dans un programme où la scolarité s'accompagne d'un travail de recherche important, constituaient des facteurs qui augmentaient d'une manière significative les chances d'obtention du diplôme. Pour les étudiants de doctorat, les seuls facteurs augmentant d'une manière significative les chances d'obtention du diplôme étaient une augmentation du temps passé dans le programme et une augmentation de l'aides financière. Introduction Despite extensive investigation of the factors pertaining to student attrition (see reviews by Pantages & Creedon, 1978; Tinto, 1975, 1987) and empirical valida- tion of Tinto's (1987) theoretical model at the undergraduate level (Munro, 1981; Pascarella & Chapman, 1983; Pascarella & Terenzini, 1983; Stage, 1989a, 1989b), relatively few studies have focused on student attrition at the graduate level (Berg & Ferber, 1983; Girves & Wemmerus, 1988; Naylor & Sanford, 1982; Ott, Markewich & Ochsner, 1984). Typically, the emphasis in the literature has been directed to investigating variables related to attracting the best and/or the under-represented students to graduate school (cf. Malaney, 1984) or to the length of time taken to complete graduate degree requirements (cf. Tuckman, Coyle & Bae, 1989, 1990). Analysis of graduate student attrition data is of particular interest to educa- tional researchers and university administrators. Recent figures suggest that as many as 20% of master's students (Sheinin, 1989) and 48% of doctoral students (Duggan, 1989) fail to complete their degrees. Given forecasted faculty short- ages, an understanding and amelioration of graduate student attrition has direct relevance to replacement of the professorate. As noted in a 1991 report of the Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada, "For the period 1990 to 2000, annual faculty requirements are projected to increase faster than the num- ber of Ph.D. graduates" (p. i). 46 Sandra W. Pyke & Peter M. Sheridan Attrition data are also cause for concern because of the impact of student attrition on institutional operations and financing. The dropout represents an unrecouped loss to the university in relation to the costs of admission, planning and running programs, and lost income in the form of refunded tuition and gov- ernment financing, which in some jurisdictions is based on enrollment (Calder, McKay & Nelson, 1977; Pascal & Kanowitch, 1979). The student who eventu- ally withdraws from the university may be absorbing financial support resources to the detriment of incoming students. If competitive funding for first- class students is jeopardized in this manner, the overall quality of the incoming student cohort may be diluted. Large numbers of withdrawing students may have adverse repercussions on the reputation of the university. A high attrition rate may be perceived by both future students and the general public to be a reflection of the university's inability to meet student needs, particularly career needs (Calder et al., 1977; Pascal & Kanowitch, 1979). Although vocational training is not perceived to be one of the primary functions of a university, both those who finance and those who attend university are increasingly evaluating it in terms of its ability to pro- duce marketable human resources. Other effects of dropping out may be more difficult to gauge in the absence of long-term follow-up data. Certainly there will have been a heavy investment of resources without any tangible return, at least in the form of conferral of a degree. The process of withdrawal for the student may be a very painful experi- ence, representing not only a loss of money and time, but also frustrated ambi- tions, unfulfilled goals, peer-group rejection, and feelings of self-doubt, disappointment and depression (Cope & Hannah, 1975). Rogers and Gentemann (1989) report, in their survey of 167 institutions of higher education in the United States, an alarming lack of preparedness on the part of colleges and universities to demonstrate their educational effectiveness empirically. While studies of student attrition represent only one possible index of institutional effectiveness, a critical first step towards the development of institutional assessment procedures is to define and examine expected educa- tional outcomes. Although the vast majority of university administrators support the requirement of such efforts (El-Khawas, 1987), the findings of Rogers and Gentemann suggest that very few institutions are actively responding to the need for this type of information (cf. Pascal & Kanowitch, 1979). With the recent increase in demand for graduate education and a concomi- tant relative decrease in the provision of financial resources from federal and provincial governments, student attrition has become one area of increasing Logistic Regression Analysis of Graduate Student Retention 47 concern for university administrators anxious to determine the nature and extent of student loss and to develop strategies to maximize graduation rates. Administrators are eager to learn why some students with ostensibly reasonable credentials fail to obtain their degrees - because they withdraw voluntarily, or they are asked to withdraw as a result of poor academic performance, or they fail to complete degree requirements within the time limits specified by univer- sity regulations. By examining graduate student attrition, the present investiga- tion is an attempt to respond to some of these important questions while simultaneously addressing the need for data on program effectiveness. Using logistic regression analysis to predict student retention, a number of variables can be identified which will allow university administrators to consider inter- ventions to maximize completion rates in graduate programs. Method Subjects A simple random selection process was utilized to identify a sample of 698 graduate students admitted to various disciplines at York University between January 1, 1975 and December 31, 1985. As all disciplines have either one- or two-year master's (M.A. and M.Sc.) degree programs, the selection of this ten- year cohort allowed the investigators to assess attrition across a series of mas- ter's classes. In addition, it was expected that the ten-year period of the investigation would allow sufficient time for all doctoral (Ph.D.) candidates beginning in January, 1975 to have either withdrawn or have had their degrees conferred by December, 1985. All data were derived from archival records maintained by the university. Students from graduate programs in three discipline areas, natural sciences, social sciences and humanities, were included in this investigation. Natural sci- ence disciplines included biology, chemistry, mathematics and physics; social science disciplines included economics, exercise and sports science, geography, political science, psychology, social and political thought, social anthropology and sociology; and humanities disciplines included art history, English, history and philosophy. The 698 graduate students in the identification sample included 539 mas- ter's students and 159 doctoral students. For the logistic regression procedures, sixty-two master's and 35 doctoral candidates were eliminated because of miss- ing data, leaving final samples of 477 master's students and 124 Ph.D. students for those analyses. 48 Sandra W. Pyke & Peter M. Sheridan Variables The selection of variables for the present investigation was determined primari- ly by the level of support they had received in the literature on undergraduate and graduate student retention (Sheridan, 1990). A uploads/Litterature/ 183161-article-text-184425-1-10-20120626.pdf