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Work guide Continuous Improvement in Decision Making for Large Fire Management CAdditional information pertaining to the elements of this guide can be found on the Lessons Learned Center website at http www wild ?relessons net CIntroduction The ?re enviro

Continuous Improvement in Decision Making for Large Fire Management CAdditional information pertaining to the elements of this guide can be found on the Lessons Learned Center website at http www wild ?relessons net CIntroduction The ?re environment is a dynamic continually changing system in uenced by climate change weather fuels vegetation and humans The intersection of these factors drives wildland ?re impacts responses and reactions Recent years have seen an emerging phenomenon referred to in variety of ways including ??Mega Fire ? ?? Fires ? and ??Fires of National Signi ?cance ? regardless of the moniker the trend is real and has dire consequences These ?res are larger more dangerous and more expensive than ever before This small number - of ??mega ? ?res was the scene of all the fatalities on U S Forest Service jurisdiction in This percentage of fatalities has steadily climbed since when there were no fatalities on these types of ?res In addition to the increase in lives lost the average suppression cost for these ?res now exceeds million annually Other trends are emerging as well Overall fatalities and acres burned are increasing and the number of ?res exceeding acres is ?ve times more than it was just ten years ago The wildland ?re community has at times employed the principle of overwhelming mass the precautionary principle which assumes there will be adequate resources to fully execute the chosen strategies on all ?res The notion that each ?re is a separate and independent event is one of the most deeply engrained mental models The precautionary principle drives many decisions and basically states in the absence of science and an expectation of di ?ering outcomes leaders will choose the most conservative approach to a problem Another way to view this would be - managers will order resources ? just in case ? Forest Service leadership at all levels along with partners stakeholders and cooperators has taken up the challenge of improving both decisions and management of these colossal ?res This should be viewed as a journey and not a destination Like any journey there are a number of steps The ?rst step in the process was to deconstruct and study ?res to discover opportunities to change outcomes It was recognized decisions were driving outcomes and with improved decisions leaders could expect better outcomes in safety ?res impact on the land and cost Science-based decision support tools have been improved and will be deployed to assist leaders in making better and more informed decisions These tools do not replace leadership or excellent judgment A select group of forests were chosen for the test bed or to pilot this improved management model These forests sometimes referred to as ??at risk ? forests display several unique characteristics which led to their selection High quality local leadership with the ability and determination to be on the cutting edge of new technology was a prime consideration Other factors included climatology and ?re history Ideally the opportunity to pilot an improved set